从“以人为本”到政府“公信”--新世纪初政府公信力构建的进路评析

政府公信力是政府凭籍自身信用赢得公众信任的能力，十六大以来，党在施政理念上强调"以人为本"，在执政行为上关注"民生"；在绩效上彰显公平正义，施政方略渗透着人文关怀因素，政府公信力得到了有效提升。但由于腐败现象没有得到有效控制，党风廉政与制度化建设相对滞后，政府公信力也受到了冲击。在新一代领导集体治国理政中，"改革"成为新的常态，防腐败斗争与党风廉政建设取得了伟大成就，政府公信力的重振业已开启。     

A new financial stress index model based on support vector regression and control chart

Financial stress index (FSI) is considered to be an important risk management tool to quantify financial vulnerabilities. This paper proposes a new framework based on a hybrid classifier model that integrates rough set theory (RST), FSI, support vector regression (SVR) and a control chart to identify stressed periods. First, the RST method is applied to select variables. The outputs are used as input data for FSI–SVR computation. Empirical analysis is conducted based on monthly FSI of the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis from January 1992 to June 2011. A comparison study is performed between FSI based on the principal component analysis and FSI–SVR. A control chart based on FSI–SVR and extreme value theory is proposed to identify the extremely stressed periods. Our approach identified different stressed periods including internet bubble, subprime crisis and actual financial stress episodes, along with the calmest periods, agreeing with those given by Federal Reserve System reports.     

The ‘right time’ – negotiating the timing of interviews with vulnerable young people

Participant retention is a key factor in determining the success of longitudinal research. Challenges in re-locating and retaining participants over the long term are major issues for researchers working with young people who face adversity and experience frequent changes in circumstances. This article reports on a study of vulnerable young people and their transition into adulthood. Rather than the more conventional schedule-based approach to locating and re-interviewing young people, a relational process, the ‘right time’ framework, was used to facilitate young people's involvement in the study. Embedded in the ‘right time’ framework is recognition of the diverse and fluctuating circumstances that shape young people's availability for interviews. Several case examples are considered which amplify the way that the ‘right time’ framework allowed the research to navigate around these circumstances. The case examples highlight the value young people attached to being involved in the research, the influence on the ‘right time’ of wider relational tensions for young people and the need to negotiate researcher status as a different sort of adult. The ‘right time’ framework contributed to a high retention rate in the study generating a more representative sample and enhancing the subsequent data analysis by providing valuable insights into the lives of these vulnerable young people.     

Stepchildren's Views About Former Step‐Relationships Following Stepfamily Dissolution

Remarriages end in divorce more often than first marriages, so many stepchildren experience multiple parental divorces and the potential loss of significant family ties. Although there is substantial research on parent–child relationships after divorce, little is known about stepparent–stepchild relationships after divorce. Therefore, the authors conducted a grounded theory study of 41 adults who had undergone a stepfamily dissolution to explore their experiences with former stepparents. Postdivorce relationships with former stepparents are a function of whether stepchildren thought of their former stepparents as kin. Postdivorce step‐relationships were based on whether the stepchild had claimed the stepparent as kin, had once claimed them as kin but disclaimed them after the divorce, or had never claimed them as family members (unclaimed stepparents). Emotional reactions to parental divorce, patterns of support or resource exchanges, and parental encouragement or discouragement for continuing step‐relationships were identified. Implications for families, practitioners, and researchers are discussed.     

Major Accidents (Gray Swans) Likelihood Modeling Using Accident Precursors and Approximate Reasoning

Compared to the remarkable progress in risk analysis of normal accidents, the risk analysis of major accidents has not been so well‐established, partly due to the complexity of such accidents and partly due to low probabilities involved. The issue of low probabilities normally arises from the scarcity of major accidents’ relevant data since such accidents are few and far between. In this work, knowing that major accidents are frequently preceded by accident precursors, a novel precursor‐based methodology has been developed for likelihood modeling of major accidents in critical infrastructures based on a unique combination of accident precursor data, information theory, and approximate reasoning. For this purpose, we have introduced an innovative application of information analysis to identify the most informative near accident of a major accident. The observed data of the near accident were then used to establish predictive scenarios to foresee the occurrence of the major accident. We verified the methodology using offshore blowouts in the Gulf of Mexico, and then demonstrated its application to dam breaches in the United Sates.     

Optimization of Cascade‐Resilient Electrical Infrastructures and its Validation by Power Flow Modeling

Large‐scale outages on real‐world critical infrastructures, although infrequent, are increasingly disastrous to our society. In this article, we are primarily concerned with power transmission networks and we consider the problem of allocation of generation to distributors by rewiring links under the objectives of maximizing network resilience to cascading failure and minimizing investment costs. The combinatorial multiobjective optimization is carried out by a nondominated sorting binary differential evolution (NSBDE) algorithm. For each generators–distributors connection pattern considered in the NSBDE search, a computationally cheap, topological model of failure cascading in a complex network (named the Motter‐Lai [ML] model) is used to simulate and quantify network resilience to cascading failures initiated by targeted attacks. The results on the 400 kV French power transmission network case study show that the proposed method allows us to identify optimal patterns of generators–distributors connection that improve cascading resilience at an acceptable cost. To verify the realistic character of the results obtained by the NSBDE with the embedded ML topological model, a more realistic but also more computationally expensive model of cascading failures is adopted, based on optimal power flow (namely, the ORNL‐Pserc‐Alaska) model). The consistent results between the two models provide impetus for the use of topological, complex network theory models for analysis and optimization of large infrastructures against cascading failure with the advantages of simplicity, scalability, and low computational cost.     

Adolescents’ and Young Adults’ Online Risk Taking: The Role of Gist and Verbatim Representations

Young people are exposed to and engage in online risky activities, such as disclosing personal information and making unknown friends online. Little research has examined the psychological mechanisms underlying young people's online risk taking. Drawing on fuzzy trace theory, we examined developmental differences in adolescents’ and young adults’ online risk taking and assessed whether differential reliance on gist representations (based on vague, intuitive knowledge) or verbatim representations (based on specific, factual knowledge) could explain online risk taking. One hundred and twenty two adolescents (ages 13–17) and 172 young adults (ages 18–24) were asked about their past online risk‐taking behavior, intentions to engage in future risky online behavior, and gist and verbatim representations. Adolescents had significantly higher intentions to take online risks than young adults. Past risky online behaviors were positively associated with future intentions to take online risks for adolescents and negatively for young adults. Gist representations about risk negatively correlated with intentions to take risks online in both age groups, while verbatim representations positively correlated with online risk intentions, particularly among adolescents. Our results provide novel insights about the underlying mechanisms involved in adolescent and young adults’ online risk taking, suggesting the need to tailor the representation of online risk information to different age groups.     

Spectral goodness of fit for network models

We introduce a new statistic, ‘spectral goodness of fit’ (SGOF) to measure how well a network model explains the structure of the pattern of ties in an observed network. SGOF provides a measure of fit analogous to the standard R² in linear regression. Additionally, as it takes advantage of the properties of the spectrum of the graph Laplacian, it is suitable for comparing network models of diverse functional forms, including both fitted statistical models and algorithmic generative models of networks. After introducing, defining, and providing guidance for interpreting SGOF, we illustrate the properties of the statistic with a number of examples and comparisons to existing techniques. We show that such a spectral approach to assessing model fit fills gaps left by earlier methods and can be widely applied.     

Using complexity theory in kinship practice

This reflective discussion draws on data from a collaborative enquiry into kinship or family and friends practice. It introduces perspectives from complexity and chaos theory as a way of re‐examining the challenges of kinship practice. The discussion highlights the enduring challenges for practitioners, not least, managing anxiety and uncertainty, sustaining continuity and containment, becoming experienced and taking account of the complex developmental needs of the children and their families. The discussion particularly raises questions about appropriate settings for practitioners to undertake such a demanding area of child and family social work.     

关于光复会创建的几个问题--兼与项义华先生商榷

东京的“励志会”“亡国纪念会”“青年会”“军国民教育会”，杭州的“兴浙会”“浙会”“浙学会”和上海的“中国教育会”“爱国学社”等进步团体均是光复会的来源。陶成章与龚宝铨受东京浙学会和军国民教育会的派遣，前往上海创建了光复会。光复会初建时，考虑到应由一个德高望重的人出任会长，于是有着清朝翰林头衔又倡导反清革命的蔡元培被推为首任光复会会长。光复会创建伊始，即将反清作为革命目标。